As ethno-nationalist populism and propaganda threaten human society, we need leaders who can offer an alternative to confrontation and conflict.

Originally published in the South China Morning Post, January 19, 2025
Whether it’s US president Trump staking expansionist claims on Greenland or an emerging German political leader channelling resentment at a minority group, the 2020s is starting to resemble the 1920s and the drift into disaster that became the 1930s. We are seeing the return of ethno-nationalism and slick propaganda, a combination that has led to the destruction of civilised societies.
In the 1920s and 1930s, Germany, the Soviet Union and Japan became gripped by a manic determination to expand and forcefully carve out spheres of influence. Inspired by earlier systems of colonialism, the concept of “geopolitics” was developed to justify seeing the world as a chessboard. The delusion was cultivated that one power could dominate Eurasia and therefore the world.
Leaders who played the game hard were admired, while peacemakers were depicted as weak and naïve. The result was the second world war.
The Cold War that followed was another scramble for world power, this time between two competing blocs – a black-and-white chessboard. No wonder that when the Soviet Union was dissolved, the United States imagined it had “won” the Cold War and that history had ended.
While history did not in fact end, the succeeding decades would see much of the world focus on globalisation and development instead of geopolitical contests. As a result, an unprecedented, larger portion of the world began to share prosperity.
The peace dividend of the recent decades helped transform the Asia-Pacific. A diversity of nations focused on their development strategies and became integrated into global supply chains and regional arrangements, allowing pragmatic cooperation between vastly different cultures, systems of government and levels of development.
However, from the US to Europe, the seeds of discontent that had previously dominated the globe became evident after the 2008 global financial crisis.
Hard economic times tend to propel the rise of populist leaders who channel blame and resentment against an enemy, either external or internal. That enemy is rarely the super-rich. After all, it’s often the super-rich who bankroll the emergence of the populist leaders. Think of Henry Ford’s support for Adolf Hitler, who gave Ford a special mention in Mein Kampf, published in – you guessed it – 1925.
Today we have Elon Musk supporting Donald Trump and campaigning for the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD). The world has changed immeasurably in a hundred years but a new generation of populist leaders is fuelling division, overturning the consensus of recent decades about the benefits of rules-based trade, resisting the modern celebration of diversity and fuelling exclusive rather than inclusive nationalism.
While nobody is surprised at Russian President Vladimir Putin evoking geopolitical imperatives to reclaim parts of the former Soviet Union, we now have a US President conjuring up bids for Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. Where will it end?
Or is it just the usual fake news to distract us from the less dramatic but nevertheless steady erosion of the World Trade Organization and other forms of rules-based international cooperation? Expect more trade wars to beggar thy neighbour, and guess which countries will benefit while most will lose.
One alarming feature of the unravelling of post-Cold War peace and prosperity is the crumbling of reliable media before our eyes. Instead, today’s world is getting more and more information from entertainment videos, many of which are designed to polarise us and inflame our prejudices. After all, that tends to monetise better than old-fashioned, fact-checked news.
In recent times, Musk has live-streamed a friendly chat with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel. These chats are a masterclass in propaganda, normalising this divisive political figure, praising her for “common sense” policies on immigration and not challenging her scapegoating of the Muslim community or the implications of the demons she is releasing.
In 1925, Benito Mussolini declared himself “Il Duce” as he embarked on an ethno-nationalist agenda. In the same year, the Klu Klux Klan was arguably at the peak of its influence in the US, promoting white supremacy. Meanwhile Japan was expanding its industrial base to support its aggressive imperial expansion. In the aftermath of a devastating flu pandemic, the next couple of decades were a time of shifting major powers, trade wars, financial collapse, plummeting confidence in experts and surging extremism.
Today it seems like we are heading back to the future, with a new cast of strongman leaders with expansionist plans, busy channelling ethno-nationalist blame and hate, aided by masters of propaganda.
Meanwhile our eyes are taken off the ball from serious global challenges including climate change and how to ensure a safe human future in the face of transformative new technologies such as artificial intelligence. These are risks to our common future that will require new forms of international cooperation.
We need leaders who can offer an alternative to confrontation and war. We need leaders who can show that unity and diversity are strengths and that it is advisable – at the local and global level – to invest in confidence building and risk management. In doing so, we can embrace cooperation rather than rush towards conflict.
It appears that we must experience a bumpy road ahead to generate a new generation of leaders with solutions rather than slogans. Let’s hope we are not destined to repeat the 1930s and that we will have the good sense to correct course before careering towards calamity.
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