A more stable US-China relationship?

It was no Nixon visit, but neither was it Trump 1.0. The visit to Beijing by United States President Trump, 13-15 May 2026, did not result in a great new accommodation between the world’s two major powers – at least not yet – but neither did it hasten confrontation. China has changed and so has Trump’s US. After a fiery first term, there was a decidedly diplomatic Trump on view in Beijing this time around. Indeed, the very stability, predictability and mutual respect in evidence throughout the recent visit may in time serve as the basis on which a new, sustainable international order may be built. For now, that remains a distant prospect.

Trump was first elected on a fury of blame over the US trade deficit with China. His first visit to Beijing as President, 8-10 November 2017, was characterized at the time as all about trade deals. Yet soon afterwards, he unleashed a series of tariffs and export controls that evolved into a full-blown US-China trade war. And almost immediately after his first visit, the Trump Administration abandoned decades of “constructive engagement” to adopt a new National Security Strategy that designated China a “strategic competitor”.

After that big switch in US strategy during Trump’s first term, the narrative about China switched overnight – across the English-speaking world especially – from awe at China’s development success to a new fear of a China “threat”. The years since have seen deepening distrust and polarization, with worst-case scenarios of conflict evoked by geopolitical analysts and military planners alike.

A grand reset was never likely. The US and China are, after all, natural rivals now that China has become the world’s biggest trading nation. China has become a leader in technologies of the new economy, from renewable energy to electric vehicles. China has also begun investing in regional and global institution-building, developing rules and standards, including over new technologies, that puts it at odds with the US, which jealously guards its tech supremacy. Meanwhile, the US has lost patience with the compromises inherent in the rule and norm-setting of the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation and other multilateral bodies tackling challenges from global climate to global health.

The two major powers have very different visions for a new world order. China is full of confidence about its national rejuvenation and expects a place at the top table of a new multipolar system. The US meanwhile is deeply troubled about its role in the world, divided at home on its national direction, and apparently intent on alienating allies from Canada to Europe.

After nearly a decade of dangerous brinkmanship that has plunged the US and China into competition without guardrails to protect supply chains or mechanisms to avoid confrontation escalating to conflict, and amid conflicts and economic crises, the Trump 2.0 visit could have been a testy affair.

Yet it was remarkably friendly. That’s an achievement in itself. More importantly, for the future, it marked a new stability in the relationship that indicates both powers are looking to manage their competition and not to allow it to spin out of control. It will take time to assess if this new phase of the relationship can endure beyond the Trump presidency, but it has good portents for the next three years.

There may not have been immediate announcements about trade deals but the presence of a heavy-duty delegation of tech leaders from the US was revealing. The giant US tech corporations play a significant role in the US and global economies and are clearly looking for more – not less – economic cooperation with China. That’s a positive sign after the techno-nationalism and excessive export restrictions of the first Trump Presidency and the Biden Administration that followed it.

For the world, it’s going to be critical to develop rules around Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other frontier technologies, to protect human safety. Both the US and China have firms dominating the technologies that will determine our future. The US has walked away from the United Nations playing a role in regulating tech and China has been advocating global rules. The two approaches have been at loggerheads, risking a laissez-faireapproach to AI development that could result in catastrophe. It’s good news that the leaders on both sides are talking.

It was also encouraging that Trump’s newly-designated Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, accompanied the President on the visit to Beijing. This was unusual, and indicated serious intent to find areas of cooperation, from the Iran conflict to building more resilient military-to-military communications to avoid or de-escalate crises in the future.

Overall, the visit underlined that there are indeed options for China and the US to co-exist, cooperate and contribute to global security and stability. This is welcome news after nearly a decade of doom messaging in the English language world.

Indeed, Chinese President Xi outlined four pillars for a way forward: positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay; sound stability with moderate competition; constant stability with manageable differences; and ensuring stability with promises of peace.

For the sake of the world, it’s vitally important that China and the US find ways to manage differences and negotiate a more cooperative future. A new maturity in language, emphasis on diplomacy and a focus on practical results over the months and years ahead could offer a way forward to a more sustainable arrangement between the two big powers.

We are a long way from any new, stable world order. It’s clear, though, that such an order will be built on the realpolitik of US and Chinese power as well as an acceptance of a new multipolar international system. It will need guardrails to ensure peace; stability to support economic growth and development; and a new willingness to work together on rules and norms for frontier technologies and other global challenges. The leaders of China and the US must have a working relationship. The alternative could be escalating confrontation, crises and conflict. 

Published in China Focus, 19 May 2026